Does History Matter? Applying Predictive Analytics to Formula 1
Keywords:
Sports, Probability/Statistics, Mathematical Modelling, Forecasting, Team Performance, Formula 1 (F1)Abstract
Predicting reliability in Formula 1 is challenging, because team performance is determined by both technical conditions and long-term organisation within the teams. This study tests if the historical data of a constructor (and its lineage in F1) could be used in predictive analytics to forecast 2026 DNF (Did Not Finish) rates. Using these, I will be attempting to create short term forecasts by three different modelling methods, assessing the most accurate, and then applying it to the upcoming season to attempt to apply predictive analytics to Formula 1.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Kieran Davis
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