A3_8 An Analysis of the Initial Spread of COVID-19 in the UK

Cameron Dickens, Jack Healings, Elliot Sampson, Ben Carlisle


In this paper we investigate the spread of COVID-19 in the population of the UK. We used the SIR mathematical model to analyse the rate of infection and plotted graphs using Python to visualise the results. It was found that with no preventative measures 47 million people in the UK could have contracted COVID-19 within 350 days. Assuming the same death rate as the UK currently has this would have resulted in approximately 1.7 million deaths in the UK alone.

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