The Probability of Relegation according to league position at Christmas in the Premier League

Abstract

This paper analyses a team’s probability of relegation if the team is either 18^th, 19^th or 20^th in the Premier League on Christmas Day. The paper then discusses a team’s probability of relegation from each league position on Christmas and investigates the hypothesis that a lower league position at Christmas means a higher probability of relegation from the Premier League at the end of the season.