Can the Poisson Distribution be used to model outcomes in the Premier League?

Rakesh Raval


This paper will explore how accurately the Poisson distribution can help model and predict outcomes of football matches including clean sheets, the number of goals scored and the overall result. The set of English Premier League fixtures being predicted will be taking place on the weekend of the 1st and 2nd February 2020, using data from the start of the season up to the 24th game week. The probabilities will then be used to aid a low risk betting technique which will be tested by placing hypothetical £100 wagers on the various outcomes of matches that the Poisson model has indicated will happen. The factors taken into deliberation when investigating into this topic include home and away form while considering attacking and defensive strengths of each individual team.

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