An Introduction to Climate Modelling and the Impact of Climate Change on Average Temperature in Leicester

Shivali Raval


In this paper, I will introduce a simple climate modelling system and then use it to determine whether or not the rise in global mean temperature has had a significant impact on the climate in Leicester. I will then make a recommendation as to whether there is an imminent need (within the next ten years) for investment in adapting buildings to cope with a changing climate. The paper can be divided into three parts. The first part is an expository piece that will construct a model. The model itself is an energy balance model (EBM) in the form of an ODE, for which the equilibrium points will be found. The second part will then implement this model using real data collected from the years 2002 to 2019 inclusive. The data is analysed using the Wilcoxon test, with its use justified by the variance test. Finally, a brief overview of the significance of climate modelling and the frontier climate science research is given. This paper is suitable for undergraduate students with limited exposure to the applications of Mathematics to climate change. As such, the model being used in this paper is a gross oversimplification of the real climate situation and serves only to introduce the concept of climate modelling and its applications in a familiar setting.

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